Financial Cycles article by IMF

IMF identified 480 financial cycles from 1960 - 2010
Click for the pdf

Pertama holdings[Harvey Norman]trading halted

Article below assumed that the trading halted is due to the buyout offer

The price offered to minority shareholders[the 13%] will the the premium offered + 5-day volume weighted average share price before trading halted.

Lets make an assumption
premium = 10-20%
5-day volume weighted average share price = guess its around 0.56-0.57(too lazy to do the maths)

the thereotical exit price based on above assumption will be around 0.616 to 0.684..close to the price[$0.65] Harvey Norman bought out a shareholder who own a huge block of shares.

Cacao

Back in January, i was guessing how much would a bar of dark chocolate rise in prices. With the input of the prices of the recent transactions in cocoa futures + the cocoa weightage in a bar of dark chocolate, I made a wild guess that prices would rise around 5-10%. True enough, I went to the supermarket recently and found out that the new batch of dark chocolates cost 7.77% more than the last batch, doesn't matter whether they are of 30% or 70% purity.

Mah Sing

Mah Sing saw something in Johore and thus the recent action.

Have you seen it

?

Here’s a clue

Watch the share price of Crescendo Corp

Parkson(MY) vs Parkson(HK)

The analyst told you

PARKSON MY is cheaper than PARKSON HK

PARKSON MY owns PARKSON MALAYSIA, PARKSON VIETNAM and others which PARKSON HK dont

                                              BUT

the analyst forgot to tell you

PARKSON HK is more liquid than PARKSON MY

                                              AND

PARKSON HK pays dividend while PARKSON MY does not

The legitimate wealth transfer

Insiders bought shares at low price and then uses a variety of methods to push up the shares price. And then, and then the company iniatiated share buy back. Whose shares the company bought back the shares from? Where is the source and destination of the money? Think my friends. Think.



Fictitious names/companies/characters/stories copyright © 2011 Aenith Inc. All rights reserved.

Did you ever wonder

about why you received calls from strangers regarding insurance but there was never any calls from strangers regarding MLM products?

Why? why? Why?

How many of us bothered to read the 100++ pages prospectus

 

If you had even bothered to read  prospectus of a recently listed REIT in Malaysia stock exchange, you would have realized that the favourable yield given for its hotels under management is valid for the first two/three years only. What happens after that initial two to three years? Are we going to witness a drop in yield?

Cannibalization of ready to eat business in Taiwan

Convenient stores in Taiwan has started to move some of their stores to bigger footprint in neighbourhood areas and catering breakfast and lunch by providing tables/chairs, in addition to their ever-growing food items for sale.  The act of providing tables/chairs has extended the times(number of minutes)customers staying in the stores thereby extended the times of capturing the eyeballs of the customers, and therefor most likely will lead to increased revenue generated


When business gets too big so much that they cant find much growth in their traditional markets, they have to branch out to other areas. In this case above, the convenient stores has cannibalized into the eatery business.

The internet economy

I was reading Ramit Sethi's newsletter, and the few lines in the end of the newsletter strikes a cord in me, eering similarity with a book titled "Zero Cost Economics" that I read recently

REIT FAQ – why why why

I am not going to tell the answers here. Read it in my upcoming book which will be published in 2011 or 2012 if there is sufficient interest

 

Question No 1

1) Why Robertson Walk will never be injected into Frasers Centrepoint Trust or Frasers Commercial Trust?( I am not saying totally impossible..but its a sure 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% no)

 

Question No 2 is related to Question No 1

2) Why City Square, Johor Bahru will never be injected into CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust??( I am not saying totally impossible..but its a sure 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% no within a 5 years period)

 

Question No 3

3) Why Starhill Global REIT(YTL’s Singapore REIT) will continue to trade at below 1x book value(currently 0.6x) despite repeated buy calls from analysts?(unless something major happens)

YTL has done it again

YTL bought Niseko Village, 617 hectares of land for 223 million and then sell Hilton Niseko Village for 222 million to Starhill REIT. In other words, YTL got 200-room Green Leaf Hotel and two 18-hole golf courses, and 155ha of leased ski mountain land on which are situated seven ski lifts and 15 ski trails for RM 1 million. The master is at it again.

Inflation is everywhere…and yet

the price of a Mcdonald’s burger is cheaper in a lot of countries during burger consumption off peak hour

e.g. weekday night in Hong Kong

        weekday noon in Malaysia Singapore and other countries..wonder why? It is not a coincidence

Gandhian Innovation - Bharti Airtel

Read an article in HBR recently titled “Gandhian Innovation” by C.K. Prahalad and R.A. Mashelkar What captured my eyeballs was that the paragraph talking about how Bharti Airtel was losing money until it decided to change tact from looking at profit margin to looking at revenue as key business ratio. I am suspecting Singtel learnt from their partner, Bharti Airtel and brought it over to Singapore. First with its prepaid business since few years ago(you can note this by looking at Singtel’s  prepaid users net adds  per quarter or looking at ARPU that keep making new lows.) and now expanding the same strategy to mio TV line of business as well.  Starhub looks increasingly fragile to me. Bharti Airtel, 1 cent per min in India…hmmmm

The ant cluster(yizu)

It refers to young people with a high level of education who work low-paid jobs and live together in crowded apartments or dorms, usually on the edge of big cities. They’re similar to ants in that they’re intelligent, weak, and live in groups,

BJCORP-JA

died as the structured product which lived for shortest number of days in KLSE

radha

Taking advantage of weak european currencies, radha imported a lot of chocolates from europe and south america.

Navis Capital

sought out investments in niche areas, consumer sectors and service industry

cash out by selling out to big corporations and mncs

http://naviscapital.net/portfolio/investments-made-by-navis/

Monkey See, Monkey Do

1. Start with a cage containing five apes. In the cage, hang a banana on a string and put stairs under it. Before long, an ape will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the banana.

2. As soon as the ape touches the stairs, spray all the apes with cold water. After a while, another ape makes an attempt with the same result - all the apes are sprayed with cold water.

3. Turn off the cold water. If, later, another ape tries to climb the stairs, the other apes will try to prevent it even though no water sprays them.

4. Now remove one ape from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new ape sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his horror, all of the apes attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs he will be assaulted.

5. Next, remove another of the original five apes and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The former newcomer now takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm.

6. Again, replace a third original ape with a new one. The new one makes it to the stairs and is attacked as well. Two of the four apes that beat him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest ape.

7. After replacing the fourth and fifth original apes, all the apes which have been sprayed with cold water have been replaced.

Nevertheless, no ape ever again approaches the stairs. Why not?

BECAUSE, that’s the way it’s always been done around here.

I like the above 'experiement' on the monkeys as it reminds me of HUMAN, they act like those monkeys.

Pills for the recessionary era

From events at the Colosseum during ancient Roman Empire to packed cinemas during the current difficult times to surprisingly increasing new subscribers of Netflix and those who upgrade to more costly plan