Sunday, October 16, 2011

Aenith ceases blogging until further notice

Dear readers,

Aenith has been a long running project for a number of years. I am feeling sad to hereby announce Aenith ceases blogging until further notice. I sincerely hope that all of you have enjoyed it or benefitted from it while it lasts. Always remember though, love and light is the only answer for everything(光和爱才是王道).

Wish you all the best,

Author

Saturday, September 10, 2011

ungated unguarded Double storey terrace house in TUTA breached 200k in September

the title says it all

CDL–master dealmaker

sold freehold hotels to CDL Hospitality Trust for a leasehold of 75 years, after which the ownership will revert back to them

sold 151 Lorong Chuan to Sabana for a 45 years lease although their ownership of the land is 999 years leasehold

Friday, September 9, 2011

Daiman bought part of Menara Landmark site for less than RM100 psf

cheaper than an apartment.with terms and conditions..of course..

land grab in Johor Bahru CBD is underway

Friday, August 12, 2011

SGX offers algo trading starting from Aug 15, 2011

For those who holds big caps like Noble, Olam, CapMallsAsia, keep an eye on your stock....



Singapore Exchange to offer new benefits of algo trading

http://blogs.sungard.com/globaltrading/tag/sgx/
By Nasser Khodri, APAC Managing Director for SunGard’s global trading business
When SGX REACH goes live in the Singapore Exchange (SGX) on August 15, the republic’s trading community can look forward to reaping the benefits associated with advanced trading technologies, such as improved performance, higher execution price, enhanced productivity and added services.
SGX REACH is the exchange’s new software matching engine that will provide remisiers with advanced algorithms so that they can send their orders in at the right time, cover their positions, and ensure their orders are executed.
What’s new in the SGX REACH trading platform? It will offer six new order modalities, including Market Orders and Market to Limit Orders, both with the objective of guaranteed execution.
SunGard, a long-time partner of SGX, on 21 and 22 June hosted a two-day SGX event in Singapore to educate more than 400 brokers and remisiers about SGX REACH – what it is, what it can do for them and how they can use it.
As a software vendor and leading provider of algorithmic trading solutions, SunGard is now all geared up to provide the software that will allow brokers in Singapore to work with the REACH system.
Algorithmic trading is currently widely used in Europe and the US, with many of the traders and brokers there aware of what it is and why it is necessary. In Asia, while many international brokers offer algorithmic trading solutions, local brokers are only now getting onto the algo bandwagon.
It is akin to something of a revolution for them. For example, a dealer at a Chinese broking firm in Hong Kong was all praises for algo trading, saying: “This algo is impressive! Before I used to check the price manually and update the order accordingly. It took a long time and I had to keep my eyes on the screen every second. Now I just leave the algo alone and it’s so much faster.”
The use of algorithmic trading is growing very quickly in Asia. According to research and consulting firm Celent, Singapore’s current usage level of 38% is expected to rise to 50% next year; and Hong Kong’s from 48% to 62%. This compares to a 60% current usage level in the US. Algo trading is proving to be a trend that brokers need to follow, or risk being left behind.
There are four main reasons for brokers to use algorithmic trading. The first is improved productivity. With algo trading, brokers can take more orders using the same level of technology because algorithms can relieve traders of parts of their workload.
Secondly, algos can improve order execution performance and boost the price of execution because they allow brokers to take advantage of the opportunities that arise as a result of issuing their orders at greater speeds; as compared to issuing them at slower speeds, if they were to be working manually.
Thirdly, algos help brokers empower their clients. When a client asks for a VWAP (volume-weighted average price) or a TWAP (time-weighted average price) order, for example, brokers need to be able to fulfill the request. It becomes a question of competitiveness. If the broker doesn’t have what the client wants, the broker will be at a disadvantage.
Lastly, algos are good for handling market specificities, giving brokers the flexibility and customisation ability to meet their clients’ needs.
At a more advanced level, algorithms can help traders attempt to be one of the first to enter the market when it opens by sending orders at a millisecond precision. They can help traders profit from tiny discrepancies and market open volatility and also help them automatically handle the force key rule, a specificity of the Singapore Exchange.
Have you ever lost an opportunity because you were too slow? Do you sometimes feel overwhelmed when constantly monitoring prices? Have you ever wished to have peace of mind during the trading day?
If your answer to any one of these questions is yes, can you afford not to have algo trading on your side?

Friday, June 10, 2011

Financial Cycles article by IMF

IMF identified 480 financial cycles from 1960 - 2010
Click for the pdf

Pertama holdings[Harvey Norman]trading halted

Article below assumed that the trading halted is due to the buyout offer

The price offered to minority shareholders[the 13%] will the the premium offered + 5-day volume weighted average share price before trading halted.

Lets make an assumption
premium = 10-20%
5-day volume weighted average share price = guess its around 0.56-0.57(too lazy to do the maths)

the thereotical exit price based on above assumption will be around 0.616 to 0.684..close to the price[$0.65] Harvey Norman bought out a shareholder who own a huge block of shares.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Pertama holdings[Harvey Norman]may be privatized

A flurry of activities recently by the Holding Company in Australia to consolidate its shareholdings cheered its shareprice.

A privatization is in the cards, because

1) The holding company and family trust controls almost 70% after bought out 17% from a key shareholder for $0.65 a piece. Plus around 9% by FMR LLC, the public shareholding is less than 13%. The company will also need to buyout the 40 % shareholder in Harvey Norman Ossia from Ossia International Ltd.

2)Pertama Holdings’s profits recovered in 2010 after the financial crisis. Profits even increased last quarter despite having opened a new outlet in 1 Mont Kiara which costed between RM5-10 million.

capture_06062011_011035

3)Harvey Norman Holdings has bought out some associates’ interest in Australia. It has also bought out 30% share in a company in Malaysia from a shareholder.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

CapitaMalls Asia converts China development fund to an income fund, increase fund size, expand due date

This action is akind to the BBs telling you that either
1)the asset is not ready to be injected yet, because the asset prices has not peaked
2)they are stretched in China to improve their malls' NPI and ROI, so they want you to wait a little longer and they will compensate you with dividend at the mean time

This will surely affect the asset injection pipeline into CapitaRetail China Trust.

Thomson Medical Centre Pt 2

I foresee a medical cluster at Stulang Laut, JB which consists of
Thomson Medical Centre(birth delivery, post natal), and
TMC Life Sciences(fertility consultation) in the spirit of one shop station(一站式/一条龙 in Mandarin) where usually the producer would capture the upstream and downstream profits by being involved in both.

prices will be about 20-40% lower compared to when it is done in Singapore
why Stulang Laut, why not Kempas Baru or Impian Emas or Bukit Indah?
My opinion is that it is likely that there would be only one stop for the MRT extension from Singapore to Malaysia by the Singapore side. Putting it in Stulang Laut will enable it to capture the patient from Indonesia and beyond besides Singapore. Also, it will be nearer to Singapore compared to the other medical centres. e.g. Columbia, KPJ and other upcoming specialist medical centres.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

NLA efficiency

NLA efficiency is the ratio between NLA(net lettable area) and GFA(gross floor area). The more efficient it is, the more packed the mall/building is, unless the management/developer is smart enough to deflect some of it thru creative use of round/honeycomb/dome shape structure or water fountain or some other attractions.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Frasers Commercial Trust

Frasers Commercial Trust disposed its AWPF fund at below book value, the buyer is National Nominees Ltd, who is the real buyers hidden behind this nominee company?

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Thomson Medical Centre

After Peter Lim bought out Thomson Medical Centre, it turns out he has plan to bring Thomson Medical Centre into JB,

 

[S'pore billionaire plans Johor medical centre
Sun, Apr 17, 2011
AsiaOne

SINGAPORE - Singaporean billionaire Peter Lim is currently working on bringing Thomson Medical Centre across the causeway and into Johor.

The Straits Times reported that the, The Edge weekly said: Mr Lim who took over the Singapore-listed Thomson Medical private last year, has bought 14ha of land in the southern Malaysian state for the project.

The land, in the Stulang Laut area, about 2km from the Johor Causeway, was bought for a purported RM200 million (S$83 million), it reported.]

NV MULTI

Guess what happens after the majority shareholder bought out the entire assets?

Its now in Singapore.lol

http://nirvanasg.com/

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Outgrow your problem

“Impossible is something that people try to reason to themselves in order for the status quo to remain the same" by la papillion

In this case, if we apply it to a company

“Impossible is something that company try to reason to itself in order for the profitability/growth to remain the same if not declining"

For example, OLAM, OLAM was a middleman all along, until one day the founder found that it is increasingly under competition in the sense that more and more growers/planters bypassed them and went directly to the buyers. It then launched an ambitious project to go upstream and the rest is history.

Saturday, April 30, 2011

a successful AEI, or beginning of a trend

What does

The Tube in Malaysia

Oxley Biz Hub in Singapore

or a small industrial building floor in Red Hill has in common?

They all have in mind for a young and hip generation SOHO style office.

Read more about the AEI by Mapletree Industrial Trust here (page 15)

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_50AB8AA4A20F0E8F4825787E00467006/$file/4QFY2010_Results_Presentation_Slides.pdf?openelement

YTL Power

YTL Power stock prices has been on the decline since the launching of YES 4G. I am struggling to understand its move as the public has been. After reading a blog post in http://goodstockbadstock.blogspot.com/, I found the answer. Basically, YTL Power is hedging for the future. The first generation IPPs contract in Malaysia will expire gradually in the near future(5-15 years if I am not mistaken), the double  digit yields enjoyed by them may be reduced to single digits upon renewal of the contracts or may not be renewed). YTL Power is trying to get a new revenue generator which has stable growth(ElectraNet, Wessex Water, Jawa Power, Power Seraya….look at the acquired assets as a group and you shall see some similar features)

Ascendas India Trust

the temporary dip in DPU is partly due to unwinding of capitalization of loan interest as Ascendas Park Square and Zenith has been completed thus they will have to recognize it in the income statement(Reason for lower DPU given in press is higher electricity tariff and fuel costs, but which other buildings in India can escape from higher electricity tariff and fuel costs?)

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Cognitive surplus

 

Lots of start-ups are fighting to become the next Wikipedia(for fee version that is). If the theory that I read in a book is true(whereby more people are willing to help for free rather than for a low fee), none of them will achieve a very significant mass comparable to Wikipedia. But, if they focus on a specialized subsection of cognitive surplus combined with a modified B2C business model ala Quirky(www.quirky.com), they may well laugh all the way to the banks.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Cacao

Back in January, i was guessing how much would a bar of dark chocolate rise in prices. With the input of the prices of the recent transactions in cocoa futures + the cocoa weightage in a bar of dark chocolate, I made a wild guess that prices would rise around 5-10%. True enough, I went to the supermarket recently and found out that the new batch of dark chocolates cost 7.77% more than the last batch, doesn't matter whether they are of 30% or 70% purity.

Mah Sing

Mah Sing saw something in Johore and thus the recent action.

Have you seen it

?

Here’s a clue

Watch the share price of Crescendo Corp

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

AMFirst REIT

AMFirst REIT has given a really mild hint that they expect to outperform in the next financial year and beyond by saying that they expect that they will be able to cover any charges/losses caused by the preliminary discharge with additional revenues expected in the future. For those who have not had a slightest idea of who they are, look at what they have done in Hong Kong, in Singapore, in Malaysia and in Australia.

4. EFFECTS OF THE DISCHARGE

The Discharge does not have any material effects on the unitholders’ capital, substantial unitholders’ unitholding, gearing and net asset value of the REIT. 
The Discharge will have an impact on the earnings of the REIT. However, for financial year ending 31 March 2011 this will be mitigated by an amount of RM5.67 million received as compensation awarded by the authorities following the compulsory acquisition of the common area fronting The Summit Subang USJ. For financial year ending 31 March 2012 and subsequent years, we expect additional revenue arising from new tenancies as well as positive rental reversion due to the repositioning and rebranding strategies implemented, which will invariably cushion any financial impact arising from the Discharge.

 Comments: Lets just hope that there will not be a huge private placement in the near future.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

City square seems ready for injection

City Square seems ready to be injected into Malaysia Commercial Development Fund or CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust. In a recently completed AEI, the management has added some beauty kiosks at the ground floor and managed to revamp a huge dead end corner lot retail unit at second floor. They shrunk the corner lot and created a few beauty kiosks out of it. Brilliant. They will divest it only at the peak of the market. When is the peak? It might be before the completion of the nearby Komtar building or it will never be divested.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Arbitrage activities by listed companies

 

Currency Arbitrage

1) Buying products made in neighbouring countries at subsidised cost and selling at premium/higher than average price in destination countries

What i have seen – ice cream cakes, pastries, cookies

 

Interest Rate Arbitrage

2) Borrowing funds at low interest rates from source countries and buying properties with yield equivalent to/higher than borrowing cost in destination countries with high borrowing cost

Destination countries – Australia, India

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Parkson(MY) vs Parkson(HK)

The analyst told you

PARKSON MY is cheaper than PARKSON HK

PARKSON MY owns PARKSON MALAYSIA, PARKSON VIETNAM and others which PARKSON HK dont

                                              BUT

the analyst forgot to tell you

PARKSON HK is more liquid than PARKSON MY

                                              AND

PARKSON HK pays dividend while PARKSON MY does not

Monday, January 31, 2011

Securities Industry Dispute Resolution Center(SIDREC)

SIDREC has been created by SC to cater for disputes resolution for individual investor for claims below RM100,000

Penang - Reverse brain drain

A number of policies has been in place
Property prices has rose
Penangites has come back from afar
Soon it will attract a limit nos of talent from E&E and services industry

Friday, January 28, 2011

The legitimate wealth transfer

Insiders bought shares at low price and then uses a variety of methods to push up the shares price. And then, and then the company iniatiated share buy back. Whose shares the company bought back the shares from? Where is the source and destination of the money? Think my friends. Think.



Fictitious names/companies/characters/stories copyright © 2011 Aenith Inc. All rights reserved.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Life money illusion

This book briefs us about how the present monetary system came about, how capitalism drives the printing of money creating inflation and deflation. More specifically, this book talks about why the current system is not sustainable, that the world must find a better way rather than blindly chasing for growth, so that our future generations will not inherit an inhabitable world from us.

Did you ever wonder

about why you received calls from strangers regarding insurance but there was never any calls from strangers regarding MLM products?

Why? why? Why?

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

XYZ Sdn Bhd

XYZ Sdn Bhd bought back one of its subsidiaries at a price that is slightly above book value. The buyer is a company setup recently by 2 unknown persons. The transaction occured months before a high court verdict involving the subsidiary over a relatively huge transaction.

 

Fictitious names/companies/characters/stories copyright © 2011 Aenith Inc. All rights reserved.

How many of us bothered to read the 100++ pages prospectus

 

If you had even bothered to read  prospectus of a recently listed REIT in Malaysia stock exchange, you would have realized that the favourable yield given for its hotels under management is valid for the first two/three years only. What happens after that initial two to three years? Are we going to witness a drop in yield?

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Uniqlo

Uniqlo striked the jackpot by providing wide variety of designs and colours with above average quality at mass market prices.

 

Notes: Wing Tai Singapore owns 49% of Uniqlo Singapore, Wing Tai Malaysia owns 45% of Uniqlo Malaysia

Saturday, January 15, 2011

The tide has turned

The stars are clearly at it.
Aenith would begin to introduce companies/industries that do things differently
This is not a buy or sell recommendation

The coming inFLATion

 

- SWF monies in commdities and related companies

- cranking $$ printing press

- banks flooded with hot monies are forced to look for new ways to optimize its net interest margin after stern property cooling measures, particularly in Hong Kong and Singapore

-last but not least, the disappearing food bonus, food and petrol subsidies has been reduced a couple of times in a year in a South East Asia nation, which will lead to a permanent 10-15%(wild guess) increment in consumer goods prices(especially staple food items)in neighbouring countries.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Cannibalization of ready to eat business in Taiwan

Convenient stores in Taiwan has started to move some of their stores to bigger footprint in neighbourhood areas and catering breakfast and lunch by providing tables/chairs, in addition to their ever-growing food items for sale.  The act of providing tables/chairs has extended the times(number of minutes)customers staying in the stores thereby extended the times of capturing the eyeballs of the customers, and therefor most likely will lead to increased revenue generated


When business gets too big so much that they cant find much growth in their traditional markets, they have to branch out to other areas. In this case above, the convenient stores has cannibalized into the eatery business.

The internet economy

I was reading Ramit Sethi's newsletter, and the few lines in the end of the newsletter strikes a cord in me, eering similarity with a book titled "Zero Cost Economics" that I read recently

Saturday, January 1, 2011

REIT FAQ – why why why

I am not going to tell the answers here. Read it in my upcoming book which will be published in 2011 or 2012 if there is sufficient interest

 

Question No 1

1) Why Robertson Walk will never be injected into Frasers Centrepoint Trust or Frasers Commercial Trust?( I am not saying totally impossible..but its a sure 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% no)

 

Question No 2 is related to Question No 1

2) Why City Square, Johor Bahru will never be injected into CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust??( I am not saying totally impossible..but its a sure 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% no within a 5 years period)

 

Question No 3

3) Why Starhill Global REIT(YTL’s Singapore REIT) will continue to trade at below 1x book value(currently 0.6x) despite repeated buy calls from analysts?(unless something major happens)

Queensbay Mall acquisition by CapitaMalls Asia

 

CapitaMalls Asia bought Queensbay Mall at RM651.8 million at 5% yield. People are asking in forums why the heck CapitaMalls Asia bought it at such an expensive valuation. I know why(what are the things they are going to do to the mall exactly, what is the ….what are the…)but I am not going to tell it here. Read it in my upcoming book which will be published in 2011 or 2012 if there is sufficient interest

YTL has done it again

YTL bought Niseko Village, 617 hectares of land for 223 million and then sell Hilton Niseko Village for 222 million to Starhill REIT. In other words, YTL got 200-room Green Leaf Hotel and two 18-hole golf courses, and 155ha of leased ski mountain land on which are situated seven ski lifts and 15 ski trails for RM 1 million. The master is at it again.